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TL;DR

• Q2 2026 auction volume ran roughly 8% ahead of Q2 2025; prices continued to split sharply by category.
• Karuizawa single casks held above Q1 highs — fewer lots offered, but demand absorbed each one; the 1980 sherry-cask average settled around $58,200.
• Chichibu The Peated (2025 bottling) entered secondary market in April and averaged $820 across platforms, well above issue-window allocation pricing.
• The compliance bifurcation identified in Q1 stopped widening — non-compliant lot discounts appear to have settled where the market now expects them.
• Catawiki emerged as the busiest platform in the $1,000-5,000 band, with stronger EU buyer participation than any quarter tracked to date.

Methodology

This summary draws on publicly reported realizations from Whisky Auctioneer, Bonhams Whisky (UK and Hong Kong sales), and Catawiki for Japanese whisky lots completed April 1 through June 18, 2026, building on the data set started in Q1 2026. Sotheby’s ran no dedicated Japanese whisky event in Q2; their Japanese lots appeared inside a broader fine spirits sale, covered in the Karuizawa section below. Prices are hammer including buyer’s premium where disclosed, converted to USD at mid-quarter exchange rates. Lot counts are rounded.

Top movers, Q2 2026

Up

Bottle	Q1 2026 avg	Q2 2026 avg	Change
Karuizawa 1980 single cask (sherry)	$54,500	$58,200	+6.8%
Yamazaki 25 Year (1990s releases)	$10,400	$11,100	+6.7%
Hibiki 21 Year	~$950	$1,050	+10.5%
Chichibu The Peated (2025 bottling)	—	$820	(secondary debut)

Down or flat

Bottle	Q1 2026 avg	Q2 2026 avg	Change
Hibiki 30 Year	$6,200	$5,900	-4.8%
Akkeshi Foundations 1	$620	$560	-9.7%
Hibiki 17 Year (sealed)	$1,650	$1,600	-3.0%
Suntory Royal (older, non-compliant)	$290	$265	-8.6%

What the numbers say

Karuizawa: fewer lots, same pressure

Q1 was defined by velocity — a high count of Karuizawa single casks clearing at rising prices. Q2 ran differently. Lot count dropped roughly 30% from Q1, but individual prices held and nudged upward. The single highest realization of the quarter — a 1980 sherry cask reaching into the upper $60,000s — came through Sotheby’s May broad spirits sale, outside the dedicated Japanese whisky auction calendar.

The supply dynamic here is structural, not cyclical. Each cask that clears is gone. The remaining stock estimated at 400-600 casks held by Number One Drinks and their distribution partners is finite in a way that distilleries like Yamazaki or Chichibu simply are not. When lot count per quarter starts declining, as it has from Q1 to Q2, that is the supply curve doing what arithmetic says it should.

Chichibu The Peated validated the craft premium thesis

Ichiro Akuto’s annual Peated release — a cask-strength bottling from the Chichibu distillery in Saitama — entered secondary in April. The $820 average realization across Whisky Auctioneer and Catawiki represents roughly double the typical allocation-window price of $300-450. Early lots cleared above $950 before settling.

What makes this more than a single-quarter event: The Peated has now posted above-issue secondary realizations across four consecutive annual releases. That pattern is harder to dismiss than one anomalous year. Chichibu II, the expanded facility opened in 2019, is now six or seven years into maturation — casks from that larger production run will begin appearing as releases in the next few years. Whether they trade with the same collector premium as the original smaller-batch production is the question the market hasn’t priced yet.

The compliance bifurcation has stopped moving

Q1’s main finding was that the 2024 JSLMA labeling regulation was repricing non-compliant lots downward relative to fully compliant bottles. That repricing has slowed. Older Suntory blends and non-compliant labeled expressions are still clearing at lower prices than comparable compliant bottles, but the rate of change has flattened. Sellers appear to have accepted the markdown; buyers are present at the adjusted prices.

For holders of non-compliant lots who bought at pre-regulation prices: the discount is probably already in your lot. The reversal thesis — that regulation would be forgotten or reversed — has not gained traction in two consecutive quarters of data.

The counterintuitive read this quarter

The strongest price action in Q2 was not at the top of the market. The $800-2,000 band — Hibiki 21, Chichibu The Peated, mid-vintage Karuizawa from the 1990s — saw the most active bidding and the tightest bid-ask spreads of any tracked tier. Catawiki ran three Japanese whisky-heavy auction cycles in Q2, and EU buyer participation was notably broader than what the traditional Japan-US-Hong Kong framing suggests.

The Bonhams Hong Kong sale was expected, based on Q1 momentum, to push Asian demand into the top tier. It delivered a quieter quarter instead: similar lot count to Q1, but two or three top-tier Karuizawa lots passed or cleared at reserve rather than above it. This is not evidence of cooling — a small handful of absent bidders can flatten a top-tier result at any house. It does suggest that Hong Kong bid depth at the $50,000+ level is concentrated in a narrower buyer pool than the headline numbers imply.

What was resolved from Q1’s watchlist

Q1’s closing section named three items to monitor through Q2.

Suntory 2026 Limited Edition annual release — not yet. As of mid-May, Suntory has not announced this year’s Yamazaki or Hakushu Limited Edition. These typically arrive late spring through early summer; the timing lag is not unusual. Secondary pricing for prior years’ annual releases has been stable to slightly up in the interim.

Karuizawa volume — fewer lots than Q1, as described above. Prices held. The supply-side logic continues to support the asset class.

Chichibu The Peated — delivered. The secondary debut came in above most pre-release estimates and held at the $820 average through the end of the quarter.

What to watch in Q3

• Suntory 2026 Limited Edition timing: whenever the announcement arrives, expect immediate secondary market reaction for prior-year vintages. Whisky Auctioneer listing activity in the week following any Suntory press release is usually the first signal.
• Chichibu II release schedule: if Ichiro Akuto’s team releases a dedicated Chichibu II single-cask series, secondary market expectations for original Chichibu production will need to be recalibrated.
• Mid-market EU depth: the Catawiki pattern from Q2 is worth confirming. If EU buyers sustain at this level through Q3, the conventional US-Japan-HK model for this market understates where demand is actually sitting.

Platforms and tools for tracking

• Whisky Auctioneer runs dedicated Japanese whisky sales every other month and provides the most consistent volume data for the $200-20,000 range.
• Bonhams Whisky for top-tier events; UK and Hong Kong sales alternate through the year.
• Catawiki for EU-side mid-market depth — particularly useful for $500-3,000 lots that don’t justify major-house consignment fees.

For fixed-price purchase rather than auction tracking, Dekanta maintains the largest export-facing catalog of Japanese whisky. The Whisky Exchange handles EU and UK allocation releases and posts regular secondary-market stock.

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Auction Watch is published quarterly. Prices cited are realized auction averages, not investment forecasts. Japanese whisky is an illiquid asset; individual lots may clear significantly above or below the averages cited here. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.